Trump's Approval
The demographic groups sinking the president
Midterm elections are all about the incumbent president. Full stop.
This is Americans first opportunity to cast their up-or-down judgement on the president and it always has been. From now until Election Day you’ll hear a lot of noise from both parties about what’s driving the trends of the election – It’s Joe Biden’s fault…Democrats have a better plan than Republicans…We inherited this mess…Democracy is on the line…
Nope. Nope. Nope. And for good measure – nope.
While all those things may factor into voters thinking, the bottom line they are casting judgement on the president and his handling of the job. Because as President Truman once said, the buck stops there. So, this isn’t unique to President Trump, regardless of what both parties may say about it.
So, how do Americans feel about President Trump?
The numbers boil down to the major demographic groups of gender, ethnicity, and political identification. Since returning to office in January 2025, the president has lost ground with every group. Though this isn’t entirely unique to Trump. Incumbent presidents generally have trouble turning out the same coalition in a midterm that got them elected two years prior while the minority party has an easier time firing up its base.
Especially noteworthy for Republicans heading into the fall is that the core groups they need with them are now underwater in their support of the president — men and whites. The inroads Republicans made with Hispanics in 2024 have turned especially sour. While it doesn’t necessarily mean these groups will be voting Democratic, they may just not vote at all.
