The Art of the Midterm Disaster
Would a generic president be this sunk?
Imagine, if you will, a generic president. It doesn’t matter which party.
On his watch he’s started an unpopular war (a net -21% for support) without Congressional authorization. Average gas prices nationwide have surged 50% in the last four months and hover around $4.50/gal. Groceries and the general cost of living have continued to rise.
His approval rating has dropped below 40%. And his approval rating is underwater with every major group tracked in polling, across party identification, sex, race, age, and education level. This includes key groups from his base. The near-universal approval rating from his own party has now dropped below 80% for the first time.
But the president is focused on unpopular vanity projects — a White House ballroom, a triumphal arch, the National Mall reflecting pool, and hosting a UFC fight night (to name a few).
His party is also worried as their generic Congressional ballot polling continues a slow slide downward, while the opposition’s numbers rise. His party’s once unshakeable Senate majority is now looking more competitive. He also happens to be in a vindictive mood, going after members of his own party up-and-down the ballot who dare disagree with him on anything, pouring resources into primary challengers or heckling them into retirement.
Amidst all this, the president comes out and says he doesn't think about Americans’ financial situation, when their biggest concerns, by a wide margin, are inflation and costs. Then he doubles down and explicitly says he doesn’t care about the midterms.
I’m of course talking about a generic president (no idea who you’re thinking of). Now, do you see a situation in which, given all this, the midterm elections are not slowing turning into disaster for his party?
I’ll wait…